Jessica Metcalf

Royal Society University Research Fellow

St Catz


Research Interests

Questions that particularly interest me currently include: how will changing human demography change infectious disease incidence and spread? What drives dynamics of rubella through space and time, and what does this indicate for vaccine control? What are the key influences on dynamics of malaria inside the bloodstream of mice, and what does this imply for control as well as evolution of the parasite? When should reproduction occur in plants where reproduction is fatal (from an evolutionary perspective)? How long do trees live and what does this imply for coexistence in diverse rainforests, and rates of carbon turnover?






Selected Publications

  • Lessler,J. Metcalf,C.J.E. 2013 Balancing evidence and uncertainty when considering rubella vaccine introduction. PLoS ONE 8, e67639

  • Metcalf, C.J.E., Cohen, C., Lessler, J., McAnerney, J.M., Ntsohe, G.M., Puren, A., Klepac, P., Tatem, A., Grenfell, B.T.,  Bjørnstad, O.N. 2013 Implications of spatially heterogeneous vaccination coverage for the risk of Congenital Rubella Syndrome in South Africa J. Roy. Soc. Interface 10, 20120756 

  • Metcalf, C.J.E., Graham, A.L., Huijben, S.L., Barclay, V.C., Long, G., Grenfell, B.T., Read, A.F., Bjørnstad, O.N. 2011. Partitioning regulatory mechanisms of within host malaria dynamics using the effective propagation number Science 333, 984-988 [Link]

  • Metcalf, C.J.E., Lessler, J., Klepac, P., Cutts, F., Grenfell, B.T. 2012. Impact of local demography, seasonality and population heterogeneity on minimum levels of coverage needed for rubella vaccination. Epidemiology and Infection 16, 1-12 [Link]

  • Metcalf, C.J.E., Muayco-Escate, C., Chowell, G., & Grenfell, B.T. & Bjørnstad, O.N. Online Early Rubella meta-population dynamics and importance of spatial coupling to the risk of Congenital Rubella Syndrome in Peru J. R. Soc. Interface 8, 369-376 [Link]

  • Metcalf, C.J.E., Bjørnstad, O.N., Grenfell, B.T., & Andreasen, V. 2009 Seasonality and comparative dynamics of six childhood infections in pre-vaccination Copenhagen. Proc. Roy. Soc. B. 276: 4111-4118 [Link]

  • Metcalf, C.J.E., Horvitz, C.C., Tuljapurkar, S. & Clark, D.A. 2009 A time to grow and a time to die: a new way to analyze the dynamics of size, light, age and death of tropical trees. Ecology 90: 2766-2778 [Link]

  • Metcalf, C.J.E. & Mitchell-Olds, T. 2009 Life-history in a model system: opening the black box with Arabidopsis thaliana Ecology Letters 12: 593-600 [Link]

  • Metcalf, C.J.E., Stephens, D., Rees, M., Louda, S.M. & Keeler, K.H. 2009 Understanding allocation of resources between vegetative and sexual reproduction: Using Bayesian inference to capture interdependent demography with incomplete observations. J. Appl. Stat. 58, 143-170.

  • Metcalf, C.J.E., Rees, M., Rose, K.E., Sheppard, A., & Grubb, P.J. 2008. Evolution of flowering decisions in a stochastic, density-dependent environment. PNAS 105, 10466-10470.

  • Pavard, S., & Metcalf, C.J.E. 2007. Negative selection on BRCA1 susceptibility alleles sheds light on the population genetics of late-onset diseases and aging theory PloS-One 11, e1206. [Link]

  • Metcalf, C.J.E., & Pavard, S. 2007. Why evolutionary biologists should be demographers Trends Ecol. Evol. 22, 205-212.